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English Logo - Department of Physics - TU Dortmund
Studierende sitzt am Arbeitsplatz und schaut auf den Laptop. © Aliona Kardash​/​TU Dortmund

Will WE be world champions?

Start: End: Location: Seminarraumgebäude I, großer Hörsaal, Campus Nord, TU Dortmund
Event type:
  • Brötchen-und-Borussia
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Prof. Dr. Andreas Groll
In the 2026 summer semester, the "Zwischen Brötchen und Borussia" event series will once again bring physics topics to a wide audience. The lectures are aimed at the interested public - adults as well as children and young people - and take place in person. This time, the focus is on the "XXL Football World Cup 2026". In the third lecture in the series, Prof. Andreas Groll will present current modeling approaches for predicting soccer results.

Together with statisticians from other universities, scientists at TU Dortmund University have developed various modeling approaches for soccer match results in recent years and investigated their predictive quality. Modern AI methods have also proven to be extremely useful. The latest model will be presented in this lecture.

Based on the estimators of this model, the World Cup was then simulated many times to determine probabilities of victory for all 48 participating teams. In addition, probabilities for reaching individual tournament stages and the most likely course of the tournament can be determined. This also makes it possible to answer the key question of which team has the best chance of winning the title.

Students can earn a student diploma by participating in the event and completing a quiz on the content of the event in the auditorium. The student diploma is credited as part of the first semester's coursework when studying physics or medical physics at TU Dortmund University.

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